A consensus has emerged that the Italian banks, led by Monte dei Paschi, have to be bailed out, in the range of 210-360 billion euros.  This will necessitate a temporary cancellation of the bail-in law that went into effect throughout the European Union in January 2016.  Were the bail-in provision to be preserved, the entire Italian financial oligarchy would be wiped out, as they are the main stock and bond holders, and biggest depositors in the Italian banking system.  So, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, the ECB and the IMF have all recently agreed that a bailout without a bail-in is a necessity.  The cost, according to a Goldman Sachs memo, is far smaller than the costs of a contagion triggered by the collapse of Monte dei Paschi.  Such a collapse would impact big banks in Germany and France, and would also impact on the big US and UK banks, all of which are holding credit default swap insurance contracts on Italian bank debt.  Deutsche Bank is the biggest single worry, in the chain of an Italian bank default.  A June report by the IMF identified all of the counter-parties to major Deutsche Bank derivatives plays, and it would hit a majority of the TBTF banks in the trans-Atlantic region.  Both Japanese and Chinese banks would not be spared in the event of a Deutsche Bank failure, including ICBC, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Sumitomo, Mizuho and Mitsubishi.